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hanging chad:
a fragment of paper separated from a ballot by the action of a hole-punch in certain kinds of voting machines;The word was made commonplace in reporting of the disputed 2000 US Presidential election.

The Hanging Shad

Connecticut's
Best Blog on Politics, Current Events and Human Interests



shad
: The American Shad is Connecticut's official state fish. Each year, these fish swim from the salty sea up the Connecticut River to fresh water spawning grounds.

VALIDITY OF NUMBERS IN BRIDGEPORT POLL QUESTIONED

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A new poll that purports to show Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz leading Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy in the race for the Democratic nomination for governor is flawed according to a national polling expert. The company that conducted the poll claims it surveyed 350 Bridgeport Democrats and has a margin error of plus or minus three percent. But the experts contacted by The Hanging Shad say unequivocally that’s impossible.

The survey, commissioned by Bridgeport political fixture and author Leonard Grimaldi’s “Only in Bridgeport” web magazine and conducted by Connecticut-based Merriman River Associates also claims to show state Rep. Christopher Caruso in a statistical dead heat in a potential rematch with Mayor Bill Finch. Finch isn’t up for election until 2011.

The Merriman survey www.merrimanriver.com shows Finch trailing Caruso by roughly three percentage points with former Mayor John Fabrizi running just four points behind Finch. Both those numbers fall within the poll’s margin of error of three percent, according to Matt Fitch who supervised the poll.

But Dr. Jeffrey Stonecash, a political science professor and noted polling expert from Syracuse University’s Maxwell School of Citizenship, says there’s no way that could be. The HS asked Dr. Stonecash today if a three percent margin of error is possible with a sample of 350 people. “No. No way. Impossible. Something’s definitely wrong there. It would take about a thousand people to get that margin of error.” Dr. Stonecash says such a flaw could raise questions about the poll in general.

The poll claims to have asked voters about Finch head-to-head matchups with Caruso, Fabrizi, former Mayor Joe Ganim, retired Judge Carmen Lopez, Probate Judge Paul Ganim and State Rep. Andres Ayala.
Caruso beats Finch 40.19-percent to 36.71-percent. Finch beats Fabrizi 40.19-percent to 35.76-percent. Measured against Joe Ganim, Finch secures 46.52 percent of the vote against 33.86 percent for that former mayor. Ganim is in jail on corruption charges. Fabrizi did not run in 2007 after admitting drug use while mayor. Finch does better against Lopez, Paul Ganim and Ayala.

The poll also asked about a Bysiewicz-Malloy match-up. Bysiewicz get 31.44-percent to Malloy’s 14.56 percent. Malloy lost a close gubernatorial primary to New Haven Mayor John DeStefano in 2006.

All of this, however, is questionable due to the problems with the margin of error. The survey’s credibility is now, at very least, in doubt.

NEW DOCUMENTS QUESTION RELL’S VERACITY ON DAUTRICH-GATE; POLLING WAS USED EXTENSIVELY AND RECENTLY

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New documents obtained by the The Day of New London yesterday show Gov. Rell’s administration used polling conducted by UConn professor Ken Dautrich far more extensively and far more recently than the governor has acknowledged casting further doubt on the truthfulness of the governor’s story in so-called Dautrich-gate. The newspaper reports a $6,000 poll was conducted this past April to weigh voters’ attitudes toward the governor’s proposed solutions to the state budget standoff. The governor has insisted she didn’t know Dautrich was involved in crafting the poll’s questions until she read it in the paper. The documents obtained by reporter Ted Mann show otherwise.

 

Governor thought it [the poll] was great,” Rell Chief of Staff Lisa Moody wrote to Dautrich April 7th. Other e-mails obtained by The Day show Dautirch asking whether his polling work “[would be] a UConn project or not.”

 

Other e-mail exchanges show Dautrich offered to conduct polls for Rell as recently as this past July as the state budget stalemate dragged on. At the the time, Rell’s budget office was paying Dautrich and some graduate students to study the streamlining of the state government.

 

The e-mails exchanges that The Day received just yesterday were among the correspondence Rell’s staff failed to provide under an original Freedom of Information request about Dautrich’s work. Rell spokesman Rich Harris has dummied-up about all of this except to say the e-mails were inadvertently held back because staffers failed to properly use the “find” function in the Microsoft Outlook e-mail program.

 

Mann’s full reports are here: www.theday.com

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With the municipal elections across the state just a week away, one wonders who among those running for the top spots in Connecticut’s cities and towns will eventually be in the middle of things statewide. Safe bets are two popular first selectmen: Mary Glassman of Simsbury and Scott Slifka of West Hartford. In fact, the two Democrats have already run statewide—against each other.

 

In 2006, Glassman was gubernatorial candidate Dan Malloy’s runningmate while Slifka filled the same role for John DeStefano. Malloy won the convention endorsement but DeStefano won the primary before being stomped by Gov. Rell in the general. In a bit of a strange twist though, Glassman won her primary, handily beating Slifka. She then paired with DeStefano in losing the general election.

 

Both chief elected officials have been successful in keeping down spending in their towns and more importantly, handling things locally while the state legislature engaged a summer-long game of budget chicken with the governor. The ridiculous and historic stalemate left local elected officials basically guessing as to their own budgets because they had no idea what they would be getting in state aid.

 

Both Glassman and Slifka survived the mess and indeed, showed exceptional leadership. In the six years previous to Glassman taking office, Simsbury’s budget increased an average of 5.5%. The last budget, with Glassman at the helm, saw a decrease of 3%.

 

West Hartford has a similar story. The operating budget dropped $645,000 and the capitol budget was reduced by $32 million with Slifka in charge.

 

One might think the two might be rivals having faced off in 2006 in the race for lieutenant governor. In fact, the opposite is true. The two have become strong allies with shared interest in issues such as regionalization—combining town efforts to reduce the duplication of services and thereby saving money.

 

The two were participants in a recent gathering of Connecticut municipal, business and education officials in Minnesota. The purpose of the meeting, sponsored by the Metro Hartford Alliance, was to share ideas on public policy issues with counterparts in St. Paul. Both Glassman and Slifka say the meeting were very useful.

 

Taxpayers should be pleased with such proactive efforts on the part of their local leaders because it’s becoming more and more of a concern that state leaders can’t get it done.

 

As for the talk of Glassman and Slifka eventually seeking higher office, both readily admit they’ve been asked about it often. But both they say they are squarely focused on next Tuesday’s municipal elections and if successful, will continue to work hard for the people of their towns.

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While Connecticut has one of the more interesting US Senate races in the nation, the race to succeed legendary Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy is turning into some real, old school, hardball politics. Martha Coakley, the hard-as-nails attorney general, is considered the frontrunner. She was the only candidate to declare she was running without waiting around to see whether former US Rep. Joseph Kennedy—nephew of Ted and son of Bobby—would run. When Joe Kennedy opted out to continue his work as the head of a nonprofit that provides home heating oil to low-income families, others jumped in including former Somerville mayor and current US Rep. Michael Capuano, businessman (and Boston Celtics co-owner) Stephen Pagliuca and Alan Khazei, CEO and founder of the nonprofit “Be the Change.”

 

While Coakley and Capuano are considered the top-tier candidates, both are having their problems. Federal election authorities have undertaken an official review of Republican state party claims that Coakley improperly used her state campaign funds to launch her senate bid weeks before Kennedy’s death. She denies it.

 

Meanwhile, Capuano has given to charity $64,500 in contributions collected through a lobbying firm that is the subject of a federal pay-to-play investigation. However, Capuano’s campaign has not yet returned $47, 500 that employees of the firm and its associates gave to another political action committee created by Capuano in 2005. A Capuano spokesman says it was an oversight and that money will be given to charity as well.

 

Politics in Massachusetts is a contact sport to be sure.