MURPHY UP AS McMAHON FADES IN CONNECTICUT SENATE RACE

From Quinnipiac University:

Women and older voters are shifting away from Linda McMahon, the Republican candidate in Connecticut’s U.S. Senate race, giving U.S. Rep. Christopher Murphy, the Democrat, a 49 – 43 percent likely voter lead, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to the results of an October 4 survey by the independent Quinnipiac University, showing McMahon with 48 percent to Murphy with 47 percent.

In today’s results, women back Murphy 52 – 38 percent, compared to 50 – 44 percent October 4. Men are at 50 – 46 for McMahon compared to 52 – 45 percent earlier.

Voters over 55 years old shift from a 48 – 48 percent split to 51 – 42 percent for Murphy.

A total of 62 percent of Connecticut likely voters have a “strongly unfavorable” or “somewhat unfavorable” opinion of this Senate race in general.

The race remains fluid as 11 percent of Murphy voters and 14 percent of McMahon voters say they might change their mind in the next 13 days.

“It’s déjà vu all over again in the Connecticut Senate race. As we hit the final stretch of the campaign, Linda McMahon is beginning to fade, as she did in her 2010 run against Richard Blumenthal,” said Douglas Schwartz, PhD, director of the Quinnipiac University poll.

“Has she hit her ceiling? She took 43 percent of the vote in 2010, losing by 12 points to Blumenthal. Two weeks before the election, she is back at 43 percent.”
Connecticut likely voters say 47 – 42 percent that Murphy better understands their economic problems. If she wins, McMahon would favor the wealthy over the middle class, voters say 55 – 36 percent. Murphy would favor the middle class, voters say 70 – 14 percent.

“Murphy has taken the lead in the Senate race in part because more voters now believe he understands their economic problems better than McMahon,” Dr. Schwartz added.

Voters have a mixed opinion of Murphy, with 39 percent favorable and 39 percent unfavorable, compared to a negative 36 – 40 percent favorability three weeks ago. McMahon gets a negative 41 – 47 percent favorability, down from a 45 – 41 percent positive October 4.

“One of McMahon’s key strengths had been that voters liked her more than Murphy,” Schwartz added. “Voters are evenly divided on Murphy but have a net negative opinion of McMahon. After improving her image from two years ago, her favorability rating has fallen back to about where she was in 2010.

“After being neck and neck among voters over 55, Murphy has opened up a 9-point lead among this age group. This could be in part due to Murphy’s 16-point advantage among this age group on who would do a better job on Medicare and Social Security, which have become hot issues in this campaign.”

Presidential Race
President Barack Obama buries Gov. Mitt Romney in the run for the White House, leading 55 – 41 percent, compared to 54 – 42 percent October 4.

Obama leads 60 – 36 percent among women and gets 49 percent of men to Romney’s 46 percent. The President leads among every subgroup except Republicans.

Only 5 percent of Romney voters and 6 percent of Obama voters say they might change their mind.

“President Barack Obama is running stronger than Murphy in Connecticut, holding steady with a 14 point lead over Gov. Mitt Romney. The President’s coattails are helping Murphy,” Schwartz said.

From October 19 – 22, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,412 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones.

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