After Big Bird, Binders and Bayonets, the People Speak

Programming note: Join me on NBC Connecticut for analysis of the big races: Today, 11 am; today 5:30 pm; and through the night for election results; and Weds., 6:30 am to look at the new political landscape

You can follow The Hanging Shad on twitter @TheHangingShad. I’ll be tweeting through out the night.

 

It’s finally here. After the now-nauseating amount of TV and radio ads and countless mailers, the people now get to speak. The Barak Obama v. Mitt Romney contest for the presidency could very well turn out to be historic. In some aspects it already is—record amount of spending, third party Super PACS, and charges and counter-charges. Here’s how The Shad sees it:

The presidential race could go one of two ways. It could end up like 2000 when it was decided in the courts. In the end, Al Gore won the popular vote but George W. Bush won the Electoral College after the controversial decision about Florida made by the US Supreme Court. It’s an ominous sign that both campaigns have dispatched lawyers to battleground states. Could Ohio with its 18 electoral votes be this year’s Florida? (Florida is a hot mess when it comes to something that every other state seems able to do—let people vote in an orderly way and then count the votes. People trying to cast an early vote Monday stood in line for up to four hours, some chanting “Let us vote!” That’s disgraceful in 2012.)

It could also go something like 2004 when President Bush and John Kerry were neck and neck in the polls going in but voters decided to stick with the incumbent. Real Clear Politics, a highly respected website, does a “Super Poll”—it takes an average of all the major polls. It has Obama at 48.8 percent and Romney at 48.1 percent. According the polls, this thing is a tie going in. Romney looks strong in the popular vote but Obama has a clearer path in the Electoral College.

The US Senate race in Connecticut concludes after a nasty, personal and nationally watched campaign. Republican Linda McMahon has spent upwards of $50 million dollars of her own money, outspending Democrat Chris Murphy five to one. But it’s Murphy who has the Big Mo. Murphy was down in the Quinnipiac Poll early in the race after a barrage of McMahon negative ads right after the primary. He started to pull away after crushing McMahon in three debates. McMahon did herself no favors by flip-flopping on key issues such as social security, emergency contraception for rape victims, gay marriage and others. She also may have hurt herself with her base by running ads and sending out mailers saying, “Vote for Barack Obama and Linda McMahon.” It resulted in Republican State Party headquarters being flooded with calls from honked-off Republicans.

Murphy wins this one, I think from five to eight points. But it hinges on whether the cities turnout for Murphy and whether McMahon can use her impressive ground game to upset the congressman.

Connecticut’s fifth district congressional race has been ranked by the Wall Street Journal as the fifth most expensive in the country. Both Democrat Elizabeth Esty and Republican Andrew Roraback have benefited from outside Super PACs. Things appear tight but the read here is that the people of the fifth district will send Roraback to Washington. Roraback is loved in his state Senate district and has served 18 years in the legislature. Esty lost her reelection bid for the state House—she served only two years. She beat state Speaker of the House Chris Donovan in the primary but there may have been anti-Donovan votes as opposed to support for Esty.

This race could be decided by turnout in Meriden and New Britain—that would be good news for Esty.

In any event, it’s a great day in this country. I know I do this for a living but Election Day should remind us all how lucky we are to be able to choose our leaders. Voting is a patriotic duty.

“Look well to the characters and qualifications of those you elect and raise to office and places of trust.”—Matthias Burnett, Pastor of the First Baptist Church in Norwalk, An Election Sermon, Preached at Hartford, on the Day of the Anniversary Election, May 12, 1803

Your thoughts?

Loading Facebook Comments ...

Comments

  1. Great post, I believe website owners should acquire a lot from this website its very user pleasant. “Frisbeetarianism is the belief that when you die, your soul goes up on the roof and gets stuck.” by George Carlin.

  2. “Effectively… that they are absolutely genuine, I did not be ready to stumble upon such a details in error, as I did, simply because I just located this website whilst I used to be in fact performing a seek in Yahoo, interested in anything very close up however, not the identical… Nonetheless at this moment I am in excess of very happy to often be in this article and I’d prefer to add that perception is rather exciting although a small amount debatable in order to my preference… I had rather express it really is around available controversy… nonetheless I’m just scared to help you an opponent, ha, , ha… Regardless, if you would like chitchat extra over it, you need to respond to my remark and I’ll make an effort to sign up to so that I shall be recommended and are available rear here for a lot more…”

  3. Many recognition for creating the effort to discuss this, I stroke convincingly regarding this and enjoy studying a enormous pact more taking place this subject. If realistic, as you gain expertise, would you mind updating your website with a enormous deal added info? It’s truly effective on behalf of me.

  4. Thanks for helping me to acquire new thoughts about personal computers. I also contain the belief that certain of the best ways to maintain your notebook computer in excellent condition is with a hard plastic material case, and also shell, that fits over the top of the computer. A lot of these protective gear usually are model targeted since they are manufactured to fit perfectly on the natural covering. You can buy all of them directly from the owner, or via third party sources if they are designed for your notebook, however not every laptop may have a spend on the market. Again, thanks for your points.

  5. Right now, since i had been an undergraduate inside do the job, my best nephew took my personal apple solution gadget besides scanned to determine if perhaps these people identifies how to attract by using a 100 more affordable thigh reduce, consequently she might become viewed as some sort of myspace impression. It ipad is damaged and he or she consists of 90 about three perspectives. The only it is typically thoroughly off issue on the other hand my business is advisable to demonstrate it ever again utilising people!

  6. I am surprised by the information in this article I found it to be not just extremely remarkable but it really also made me reflect. It is hard now a days to find relevant information to ones search, so I am happy that I found this article post

  7. Its such as you read my mind! You seem to know so much approximately this, such as you wrote the e-book in it or something. I think that you just can do with a few % to power the message house a bit, however instead of that, this is excellent blog. A great read. I’ll certainly be back.

  8. I just want to mention I am very new to blogs and truly savored your blog. Almost certainly I’m planning to bookmark your site . You really have wonderful posts. Thanks a lot for revealing your blog.

  9. If you want to learn the untold secrets of body fat reduction by drinking water then you’re going to wish to study this article. Since 70% of our bodies are water it stands to reason that it’s vital to our health and nicely being.

  10. muy pero muy buenisima página, te felicito por ese gran trabajo y dedicacion e inspiracion por hacer una pagina tan gratificante, es muy agradable saber que personas como usted pueda inspirarse y ser una persona muy sabia.

  11. ertise. But ordinary doctors? Well, their job could be redesigned so that, once the diagnosis was complete, all they need do is prescribe the latest miracle cure from the labs of the pharmaceutical industry. Fast forward to today and you find the revolution is complete. It’s very difficult to persua

  12. it will give you guaranteed results. Also note that certain spinal cord injuries make a man incapable of having sex even without impotence or ED. There come difficulties on thefront of positioning and other such factors. In such cases ED drugs like cialis are ofno use!Kelly Smith Submitted 2011

  13. nationwide patent Offices when using the significant advantage of reducing their work masses ever since they’ve the benefit of these international phase operations and therefore need not duplicate those efforts. Further objectives of the PCT are to facilitate and speed up access by industries and di

Comments are closed