A new poll shows Republican Tom Foley leading Gov. Dan Malloy in the race for governor by seven percentage points, 45 to 38 percent. However, it’s not surprising the Rasmussen poll has Foley ahead. Rasmussen was flamed in the 2010 election cycle when it was consistently wrong on races by leaning heavily toward Republicans. It performed its way to the bottom of the polling barrel according to Nate Silver, considered the best of the best in polling performance. CTCapitolReport.com pointed out the Silver criticism today.
Malloy’s senior campaign advisor Roy Occhiogrosso reiterated the campaign doesn’t comment on polls mainly because they fluctuate so often. He says no matter what the polls say the governor does what he thinks is the right thing do.
Occhiogrosso added, “I’ve gone into three election days with Dan Malloy. All three times he was behind in the polls. Two of those times he won.”
As The Shad pointed out after the last poll on the race came out, Malloy had a serious challenger in the 2010 Democratic primary in Ned Lamont. Just before primary election day, a poll should have had him shaking in his boots. The headline on the August 9, 2010 read, “Dem Gov. Primary Too Close To Call As Malloy Closes…” As the state braced for what should have been a long election night in the neck and neck battle, Malloy left Lamont looking for his socks like Charlie Brown after a baseball pitch. He blasted Lamont by 16 points. That’s right, 16 points in a race that was said was too close to call.
Silver, named by Time magazine as one of “The World’s 100 Most Influential People” and who in the 2010 presidential race correctly predicted 50 out of 50 states and the District of Columbia, clearly has little regard for Rasmussen. “Rasmussen’s polls were quite biased, overestimating the standing of the Republican candidate by almost 4 points on average. In just 12 cases, Rasmussen’s polls overestimated the margin for the Democrat by 3 or more points. But it did so for the Republican candidate in 55 cases — that is, in more than half of the polls that it issued,” he wrote. See Silver’s critique here.
In any event, given Malloy’s history of defying polls (even the unbiased ones), there’s very little chance he is worried this one.