Malloy Catches Foley in Connecticut’s Governor Race Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Race is Dead Heat as Independent Gets 9 Percent

NOTE: On October 8, Public Policy Polling had Malloy up by 8 points at 43 percent to Foley’s 35 percent.

From Quinnipiac University:

Connecticut Gov. Dannel Malloy overcomes a six-point lead by Tom Foley, the Republican challenger, leaving the race a 43 – 43 percent dead heat, with 9 percent for independent candidate Joe Visconti, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 46 – 40 percent Foley lead among likely voters in a September 10 survey by the independent Quinnipiac University.

With Visconti out of the race, it’s a 46 – 46 percent tie.

In the last four weeks, Malloy has cut Foley’s lead among men from 19 percentage points to 11 points, while the Democrat’s lead among women grows from 7 points to 11 points.

In today’s three-way matchup, women back Malloy 47 – 36 percent, with 10 percent for Visconti, while men back Foley 50 – 39 percent, with 8 percent for Visconti. Foley leads 82 – 9 percent among Republicans, with 6 percent for Visconti, and 47 – 37 percent among independent voters, with 11 percent for Visconti. Democrats back Malloy 77 – 9 percent, with 9 percent for Visconti.

Among Connecticut likely voters who name a candidate, 74 percent say their mind is made up, while 25 percent say they might change their mind by Election Day. Their minds are made up, say 73 percent of Malloy voters and 81 percent of Foley backers, while 56 percent of Visconti supporters say they might change their mind.

“The poll is good news for Connecticut Gov. Dannel Malloy. After trailing Republican Tom Foley by 6 points a month ago, Malloy is tied as this race promises to go down to the wire,” said Douglas Schwartz, PhD, director of the Quinnipiac University poll.

“Malloy has been able to cut into Foley’s lead among men while increasing his lead among women, to break even over all. There is a gender gap in the race with Malloy ahead by 11 percentage points among women and Foley up 11 points among men,” Dr. Schwartz added.

“While there are only 5 percent of likely voters undecided, 25 percent of voters could still change their minds.

“It looks like we’re heading for another photo finish – just like in 2010.”

Connecticut likely voters are not overly fond of any of the candidates:

• Malloy gets a negative 41 – 51 percent favorability, compared to his negative 40 – 53 percent grade September 10;
• Foley gets a split 41 – 39 percent favorability, compared to a positive 42 – 33 percent rating last month;
• 86 percent of voters still don’t know enough about Visconti to form an opinion, little changed from his 89 percent “don’t know enough” rating last month.

“As the campaign has gotten nasty, voters are not wild about either candidate. Malloy’s favorability rating is still underwater. Foley gets a mixed favorability rating. He is a little better known since early September, but a little less liked.

“Voters like Foley less since our last poll. Foley’s negatives have risen perhaps due to Malloy’s attacks.”

From October 1 – 6, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,085 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.