Foley Says He’ll Win by 4 or 5 pts.; Last Q-Poll Says Malloy by 3

Republican challenger Tom Foley sounded extremely confident at the end of last week, saying he’d beat incumbent Democratic Gov. Dan Malloy by four or five percentage points. He even scheduled a press availability for Wednesday morning, something the winner usually does.

However, the latest and last Quinnipiac poll before Election Day shows Malloy ahead by three points even with petitioning candidate Joe Visconti out of the race. It’s still statistically very close since the margin of error is +/- 3.2 percent.

From Quinnipiac University polling:

With independent candidate Joe Visconti out of the Connecticut governor’s race, Democratic incumbent Gov. Dannel Malloy has 47 percent of likely voters to Republican challenger Tom Foley’s 44 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. But 7 percent remain undecided one day before the election.

This compares to results of an October 29 survey by the independent Quinnipiac University, showing Foley with 46 percent of likely voters to Malloy’s 45 percent.

Republicans back Foley 89 – 7 percent as Democrats back Malloy 86 – 10 percent. Independent voters are divided with 44 percent for Malloy and 45 percent for Foley. Malloy leads Foley 53 – 38 percent among women, while Foley leads 51 – 41 percent among men.
“Contrary to conventional wisdom, independent candidate Joe Visconti’s last minute exit from the governor’s race doesn’t look like it will help Republican Tom Foley,” said Douglas Schwartz, PhD, director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

One day before the election, 89 percent of Connecticut likely voters who name a candidate say their mind is made up, while 11 percent say they might change their mind.

Connecticut likely voters give Foley a split 42 – 44 percent favorability rating, while Malloy gets a negative 43 – 49 percent score.

From October 28 – November 2, Quinnipiac University surveyed 926 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points