To his credit, Quinnipiac polling director Doug Schwartz made it clear yesterday that the new Q-poll showing Democrat Richard Blumenthal leading Republican Linda McMahon by just six points in the race for US Senate, can’t be compared to previous Q-polls. Prior surveys polled registered voters while the one released yesterday queried “likely voters.”
Nate Silver in his New York Times column “Political Calculus” points out that the switch from one group of voters (registered) to the other (likely) commonly shows tighter numbers.
Irrespective of whether the race is really tightening, the bigger concern the Blumenthal campaign has at this moment is that his favorability numbers (70%) are not translating in more support among likely voters (51%). That’s the challenge ahead for him.