Why Doug Jones Will Win in Alabama

I could hit you, my readers, with stats, polling, analysis, precedent, or insight. But the bottom line reason I think Doug Jones will win the Alabama US Senate race is because I still believe in the fundamental goodness of people in this country. Such a view may be naïve but it’s where I am—at least until tonight.

The real question is whether the good people of the (great?) state of Alabama will choose a man who prosecuted KKK members who murdered three young girls over a man who was persona non grata at the local GAP or Orange Julius because he was creeping on teenaged girls.

 

Alabama US Senate candidates Democrat Doug Jones (L) and Republican Roy Moore.

 

There were plenty of reasons not to choose Roy Moore before the credible sexual assault/harassment came to light.

• He says the 9/11 attacks because the country “had distanced itself from God.” He suggested that God may be upset because “we legitimize sodomy” and “legitimize abortion.”

• Contends Barack Obama wasn’t born in the US (he shared this one with the president.

• Believes women should not be allowed to run for office.

• Wants to abolish all amendments to the Constitution after the first ten. That means getting rid of—among other things—women’s right to vote, the abolishment of slavery.

 

 

• Thinks America was great during a time when slavery existed.

• Says homosexual activity should illegal.

• And oh, lest we think he and his wife, Kayla, are anti-Semitic…

 

 

There are some hard numbers and reasons why Jones will win:
• A FOX News poll puts Jones ahead by 10 points. I hesitate to even mention this because we usually throw polls out the window in a special election—turnout is too much of a wild card and the number of people who say they will not vote for Moore but actually will is impossible to measure.

• Moore squeaked by in his last statewide election in 2012 (for a seat on the state supreme court). One would think he would have romped. He got 51.8 percent.

• Mobile voters may abandon Moore for Jones. This area is home to many suburban, middle- to wealthy-class Republican. They tend to be more educated.

• African Americans will turn out and undecided white voters will break for Jones. Both need to happen. White women in Alabama will decide this race.

In the end, when the people of Alabama vote, I think they will do the right thing.